The Market Timing Playbook: Should You Buy a House Now or Wait?
A Data-Driven Guide to the Collin County and North Texas Real Estate Market
Written by David Hughey, REALTOR® | D&J Realty Group | Keller Williams McKinney Published: June 2026 | Data reflects April–June 2026 reporting periods unless otherwise noted
If you've been asking whether now is the right time to buy a home in McKinney, Frisco, Prosper, Celina, or anywhere across Collin County, you're asking the single most-searched question in real estate. It's the question that floods Google, fills AI chatbot conversations, and dominates every dinner table where someone's thinking about making a move.
It's also a question that deserves a real answer grounded in actual data, not headlines designed to generate clicks.
This guide is built entirely on current market statistics from Redfin, Zillow, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, Realtor.com, the National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac, and Bankrate. We don't want to provide opinions masked as analysis,but we do want to share a simple yet also detailed look at what the numbers say at the national level, what they say specifically about Collin County and North Texas, and what they mean for anyone trying to decide whether to buy a home now or to wait for some sort of anticipated change to occur, such as an interest rate drop.
We cover ten topics across this guide. By the time you're finished reading, you'll have the data foundation to make one of the most significant financial decisions of your life with confidence rather than guesswork and your gut feeling.
If at any point you want to run your specific situation against these numbers, reach out directly at dandj.realty/contact.
In This Guide:
- The Question Nobody Can Stop Asking
- Mortgage Rates: The Myth That's Costing Buyers Thousands
- What the National Data Actually Says
- Collin County Right Now: Your Local Reality Check
- The Price Journey: From Peak to Today
- The Real Math on Waiting
- Rent vs. Buy: Running the Actual Numbers in Collin County
- Inventory: How the Power Shifted to Buyers
- City by City: McKinney, Frisco, Prosper, Celina, and More
- How to Actually Make the Decision
1. The Question Nobody Can Stop Asking
There's a reason this question is the most commonly searched. It sits at the intersection of two other highly searched topics that create genuine uncertainty: mortgage rates that have made buying feel expensive, and home prices that have made waiting feel logical.
Between 2020 and 2022, the North Texas market moved so fast that buyers were waiving inspections, offering well above asking price, and losing to cash offers, sometmes even on the day it listed. The Federal Reserve raised rates significantly to curb inflation, and by late 2023 the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had pushed above 7 percent. This caused the buyers to step back from the market and more homes to become available.
Now, in 2026, buyers find themselves in a genuinely different environment than anything they've experienced in this cycle. Rates have moderated slightly. The number of available homes ("inventory") in Collin County has nearly doubled over a three-year span. Sellers are offering concessions and the multiple-offer over asking price situations of 2021 and 2022 have been replaced by homes sitting on the market for 40 to 52 days and closing below asking price.
So does the change represent a buying opportunity or a signal to wait for something better?
2. Mortgage Rates: The Myth That's Costing Buyers Thousands
The single most common reason buyers give for waiting is mortgage rates. And the assumption underneath that reasoning is almost always the same: rates were low before, they'll get low again, and so then it must be best to wait until they do.
Let's take a look at some historical stuff.
According to Freddie Mac data tracked by Bankrate, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from 1971 through 2019 was 7.74 percent. Though this seems crazy to those with an interest-rate-entitled mindset, that's actually the historical norm for a home loan in the United States!
The 3 percent rates of 2020 and 2021 weren't normal, though the mindset of many today seems to be that it "should be". They were the product of emergency monetary policy during a global pandemic, sustained by a Federal Reserve that kept rates at near-zero levels to prevent an economic collapse. Those conditions are gone, and nearly every major economist agrees they aren't returning on any timeline that should inform a buying decision made today.
As of June 2026, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at approximately 6.73 percent (Bankrate). Realtor.com's 2026 housing forecast projects the annual average will land around 6.3 percent by year-end. That means current rates aren't unusually high by any historical standard! They're actually more than a full percentage point below the 50-year average.
If rates drop, inventory decreases, and competition among buyers increases. The National Association of Realtors reports that a single one-percentage-point drop in mortgage rates would make approximately 5.5 million additional households eligible to purchase a home. Around 10 percent of those households typically acton that, which would translate to roughly 500,000 additional buyers competing for the same shrinking pool of available homes. The buyers who are waiting for relief in rates may be setting themselves up to compete against a significantly larger crowd of buyers if and when rates move lower.
The payment difference between 6.7 percent and 5.5 percent on a $461,000 home with a 20 percent down payment is approximately $298 per month. In the bigger picture is that alot or not that much? Meanwhile every month of renting while waiting for that rate eases the gap, particularly when rents in Collin County are averaging $1,712 per month and building zero equity as time goes on.
3. What the National Data Actually Says
The national housing market in 2026 is doing something that maybe alot of buyers aren't yet fully realizing. Existing-home sales in 2024 totaled 4.06 million, which the National Association of Realtors identifies as a 29-year low. Sales have been suppressed not because nobody wants to buy homes, but because the combination of elevated rates and the "mortgage rate lock-in" effect has discouraged potential sellers from making a move out of a low rate into a higher one.
Here's some data to support that. Realtor.com reports that four out of every five homeowners with a mortgage holds a rate below 6 percent. Those homeowners have almost no financial incentive to sell, move, and finance their next home at today's higher rates. As long as that's the situation, the supply side of the market will remain somewhat constrained even as demand starts decreasing.
The National Association of Home Builders characterizes the national housing deficit as one of the primary constraints on affordability, arguing that the only path to genuinely solving the problem is building more homes.
Regarding price, Realtor.com's 2026 housing forecast projects national existing-home price appreciation of approximately 2.2 percent for the year. Zillow's April 2026 forecast is more conservative at 0.8 percent. Neither projection suggests a significant price correction is coming, but they do suggest if not prove that the the old days of double-digit annual price increases is over, and that the market is stabilizing into a range that makes mid to long-term waiting for lower prices a losing strategy in most scenarios, when you look at the nmbers, which we will. Again, this is based on stats not pursuasive opinion.
For the Dallas-Fort Worth metro specifically, Realtor.com projects 1.8 percent price growth in 2026, alongside a 5.4 percent decline in transaction volume as the overall pace of the market is sort of coasting along as-is.
The buyer pool won't always be this small, but demand won't decrease around North Texas. North Texas has been one of the fastest-growing regions in the country for employment, population, and corporate relocation, and that growth doesn't reverse because mortgage rates are above 6 percent!
4. Collin County Right Now: Your Local Reality Check
The national data provides a somewhat contrasting backdrop to the local market's differences. The Collin County data provides the decision-driving information that should have some effect on the way most readers of this blog are asking thier real estate questions.
As of April and May 2026, here's what the Collin County housing market looks like according to current data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, Redfin, Zillow, and Realtor.com.
Median sale prices in April 2026 were reported at $461,212 (Redfin), $463,900 (TRERC), and $473,333 for March 2026 (Zillow). The Realtor.com median sold price for May 2026 is reported at $450,000, with a median list price of $524,990. The gap between list and close prices reflects a market where sellers are pricing ambitiously and then negotiating to close. That's meaningful to buyers.
71.1 percent of homes in Collin County sold under list price in March 2026 (Zillow). Only 12.7 percent sold above asking price, a dramatic reversal from the peak years of 2021 and 2022 when the majority of homes drew multiple competing offers and closed significantly above list.
Homes are sitting on the market an average of 42 to 52 days depending on the source and the specific submarket, compared to 45 or fewer days a year ago. More time on market means more room for buyers to negotiate, request repairs, and make contingent offers that would've been rejected outright two years ago.
The market is officially classified as a buyer's market as of May 2026 (Realtor.com), with homes selling at approximately 98 percent of asking price on average. Months of supply sits at 4.17 months (TRERC, April 2026), well above the low of 0.59 months recorded in March 2022 at the height of the seller's market.
For buyers who've been waiting, this data represents the most favorable negotiating environment Collin County has offered in several years. If you want to understand what this specifically means for a home in your price range, reach out directly at dandj.realty/contact.
5. The Price Journey: From Peak to Today
Understanding where prices are today requires understanding where they've been. The Collin County median home price hasn't moved in a straight line, and the trajectory tells an important story for anyone waiting for prices to fall further.
According to TRERC historical MLS data, the Collin County median sale price reached its recent peak in June 2022 at approximately $570,000. From that peak, prices declined and stabilized through 2023, then moved in a narrow range through 2024 before another period of moderation heading into 2025 and 2026.
By April 2026, the median sale price had settled at approximately $461,000 to $464,000, depending on the source. That represents a decline of roughly $100,000 to $110,000 from the 2022 peak, a real and meaningful correction that most buyers sitting on the sidelines haven't fully registered.
The homes selling today in McKinney, Frisco, Prosper, and Celina are pricing at levels that weren't achievable at the height of the market. A buyer who waited out the peak years is now rewarded with lower prices. The question from this point is whether additional declines of meaningful size are likely. Well it doesn't look like it is going to be very likely.
Inventory has grown substantially but active demand has kept homes selling. TRERC reported 1,545 closed sales in April 2026 in Collin County, up 6.19 percent year-over-year. Volume is growing even as prices have moderated. This isn't a crash, but rather a re-stabilization into a sustainable growth pattern.
Significant additional price declines would require either a significant rise in unemployment, a sustained surge in foreclosures, or a dramatic additional increase in rates. None of those scenarios are broadly projected by leading housing economists for 2026 or 2027 in the North Texas market.
6. The Real Math on Waiting
The conversation about waiting often stays in the abstract. "Rates will come down" or "prices might drop more" aren't financial strategies as much as they are simply hopes. Here's some simple math to prove it.
Using current Collin County data and the DFW-specific 2026 forecast from Realtor.com, here's a side-by-side comparison of buying today versus waiting one year.
| Buy Today | Wait One Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Home Price | $461,000 | $469,298 (+1.8% DFW forecast) |
| Down Payment (20%) | $92,200 | $93,860 |
| Additional Down Payment Required | — | +$1,660 |
| Mortgage Rate | 6.7% | 6.4% (projected 0.3% drop) |
| Monthly Principal & Interest | ~$2,392 | ~$2,348 |
| Monthly Savings from Waiting | — | $44/month |
| Additional Purchase Price Paid | — | +$8,298 |
| Break-even on Monthly Savings | — | ~15 years |
The monthly savings from waiting: $44 per month.
The additional cost paid for the home: $8,298.
The additional funds needed at closing: $1,660 in down payment alone, before closing costs.
At $44 per month in savings, it'd take approximately 15 years just to recover the additional purchase price through lower payments. That calculation doesn't account for the equity built during the year spent waiting, the appreciation captured during that year, or the rent paid during the waiting period.
If you paid $1,785 per month in rent while waiting for that $44 per month savings, you spent $21,420 in rent building zero equity while the home price moved against you by $8,298. The actual cost of that one year of waiting, in that scenario, exceeds $29,000 when rent and price appreciation are combined.
This isn't an argument that all buyers should buy immediately regardless of their circumstances. It's a demonstration that the math of waiting tends to work against buyers in markets where prices are appreciating and rates are projected to maybe decline, potentially, just a little bit.
7. Rent vs. Buy: Running the Actual Numbers in Collin County
The rent-versus-buy discussion has changed significantly in Collin County over the past three years. Understanding where it stands today requires looking at actual local rental data rather than national averages.
As of April 2026, the average asking rent in Collin County is $1,712 per month (Zillow). Realtor.com reports the county-wide median rent at $1,785 per month. Year-over-year, Collin County rents have declined by approximately 1.9 percent, which is genuine relief for renters compared to the surge years of 2021 through 2023.
Notably, Collin County's average rent of $1,712 sits below the national average rent of $1,930 per month, reflecting the relative value the North Texas market still offers compared to coastal metros.
Here's what renting versus buying looks like over five years using current market data.
Five-year cost of renting at $1,785/month with 2% annual rent increases:
| Year | Annual Rent | Equity Built |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $21,420 | $0 |
| Year 2 | $21,848 | $0 |
| Year 3 | $22,285 | $0 |
| Year 4 | $22,731 | $0 |
| Year 5 | $23,186 | $0 |
| Total | ~$111,470 | $0 |
Five-year outcome of buying at $461,000 with 20% down at 6.7%:
| Down Payment | $92,200 |
| Monthly Principal & Interest | $2,392 |
| Total Payments Over 5 Years | ~$143,520 |
| Principal Paid Down | ~$21,500 |
| Estimated Home Value After 5 Years (1.8% annual appreciation) | ~$503,000 |
| Estimated Loan Balance After 5 Years | ~$277,000 |
| Estimated Total Equity After 5 Years | ~$226,000 |
The renter paid $111,470 over five years and ended with $0 in equity. The buyer paid more monthly but accumulated approximately $226,000 in equity over the same period.
This comparison isn't designed to suggest buying is always the right answer for every person in every situation. Timeline, job stability, family plans, and financial reserves are all part of the decision making process. It's designed to show what the numbers actually say when you run them forward rather than deciding based on how the monthly payment feels.
If you want to build a rent-versus-buy comparison specific to your income, your down payment, and the price range you're shopping, start the conversation at dandj.realty/contact.
8. Inventory: How the Power Shifted to Buyers
One of the least discussed but most significant shifts in the Collin County market over the past three years has been the transformation in available inventory. Understanding this shift is fundamental to understanding the buyer's position in today's market.
In March 2022, at the peak of the seller's market, Collin County carried 0.59 months of housing supply. That means if no new homes had come on the market, every available listing would've been sold in less than three weeks. Buyers competed in that environment with no leverage, no time to think, and no negotiating room. Waived inspections and escalation clauses were fairly normal.
By April 2026, Collin County inventory had grown to 4.17 months of supply (TRERC) with over 12,890 active listings across the county (Realtor.com). That represents a 96 percent increase in active listings over three years, a number that fundamentally changes the buyer-seller dynamic.
With more than four months of supply, buyers have time to compare properties, schedule inspections, negotiate price and terms, and make contingent offers. More than half of all Collin County listings saw price reductions at various points in 2025 (HousingWire, November 2025), and the majority of transactions are closing below list price.
This inventory environment won't last forever. If rates drop meaningfully, the buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines will re-enter the market at the same time that sellers who've been locked in below-market rates begin making moves. Supply and demand will tighten again, and the current negotiating window will close. The question for every buyer is whether they want to work with the current inventory or compete against more buyers for tighter inventory in the future.
9. City by City: McKinney, Frisco, Prosper, Celina, and More
Collin County spans a wide range of price points and market conditions depending on where you're looking. Here's a current snapshot of the county's major cities based on Realtor.com data from May 2026.
McKinney
- Median listing price: $519,000
- Median days on market: 40
- Active listings: 2,589
McKinney continues to offer one of the strongest combinations of price point, community infrastructure, and access across the county. With over 2,500 active listings, buyers have genuine selection across neighborhoods and price tiers.
Allen
- Median listing price: $529,950
- Median days on market: 35
- Active listings: 519
Allen moves faster than the county median, which reflects its established neighborhoods, proximity to major employers, and limited new construction adding to supply. Buyers in Allen should expect more competition than in other submarkets.
Frisco
- Median listing price: $725,000
- Median days on market: 35
- Active listings: 735
Frisco's premium positioning is reflected in its price point, which sits well above the county median. Days on market at 35 reflects continued demand despite the higher entry point. New construction remains active in Frisco's northern corridors.
Plano
- Median listing price: $550,000
- Median days on market: 35
- Active listings: 900
Celina
- Median listing price: $560,000
- Median days on market: 43
- Active listings: 2,241 (up 13% year-over-year)
Celina is one of the fastest-growing cities in the county and carries one of the largest active listing inventories. The growth in available homes gives buyers meaningful selection and negotiating room, particularly in newer master-planned communities.
Prosper
- Median listing price: $850,000
- Median days on market: 45
- Active listings: 673 (up 19.65% year-over-year)
Prosper operates at the premium end of the market. The nearly 20 percent growth in active listings year-over-year reflects the level of new construction entering this submarket, which creates legitimate buyer leverage at higher price points.
Melissa
- Median listing price: $499,999
- Median days on market: 42
- Active listings: 418
Anna
- Median listing price: $370,000
- Median days on market: 48
- Active listings: 1,030
Princeton
- Median listing price: $306,965
- Median days on market: 50
- Active listings: 1,436
Princeton and Anna represent the most accessible price points in the county and carry the longest median days on market, meaning buyers at these price points have more time and leverage than in faster-moving segments.
Wylie
- Median listing price: $464,500
- Median days on market: 44
- Active listings: 419 (up 30.9% year-over-year)
Each of these cities carries its own micromarket dynamics. To understand what the data means for a specific neighborhood, builder, or price range, the conversation is better had directly. Reach out at dandj.realty/contact.
10. How to Actually Make the Decision
There's no universal right answer to whether you should buy now or wait. The data in this guide is designed to inform your decision, not make it for you. But there's a framework that cuts through the noise and focuses on the variables that actually matter. I like to call it "improving the signal to noise ratio". Reduce the "noise" and focus on the "signal" that will help you make the right decision for YOU.
Start with your timeline. If you plan to own a home for five or more years in Collin County, the data strongly supports buying in the current environment. Price appreciation, equity building, and the practical benefits of stable housing costs all work in your favor over that horizon. If your timeline is two years or less, the calculation changes, and waiting or renting may genuinely make more sense.
Evaluate your financial readiness, not market timing. The buyers who consistently make sound real estate decisions aren't the ones who perfectly time the market. They're the ones who buy when they're financially prepared: solid reserves, stable income, clearly understood monthly obligations, and enough cushion to handle the unexpected costs that come with homeownership. Market timing is a variable you can't fully control. Financial readiness is.
Understand what you're actually waiting for. If you're waiting for rates to drop to 5 percent or lower, you're waiting for a scenario that most economists don't project occurring in the near term. If you're waiting for prices to fall significantly, you're waiting for conditions that would require economic deterioration serious enough to harm other parts of your financial life. If you're waiting because the current market feels uncertain, that feeling is understandable but isn't a data point.
Get the local picture for your specific situation. The data in this guide is accurate and current, but real estate decisions are made at the street level, not the county level. A home in west McKinney prices differently than one on the border of Prosper. A new construction community in Celina offers different opportunities than a resale neighborhood in Frisco. The area, the builder, and the home itself are all important factors.
The team at dandj.realty works specifically in Collin County and the surrounding North Texas market. Every piece of content in this series is backed by the same research that informs how we advise clients every day. If you're ready to move from data to decision, dandj.realty/contact is the right next step.
All data cited in this guide reflects publicly available information from Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, the National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac, Bankrate, and HousingWire. Data points reflect reporting periods of April through June 2026 unless otherwise noted. Real estate market conditions change. Individual circumstances vary. This guide is intended as an educational resource, not a substitute for professional advice tailored to your specific situation.