Written by David Hughey, REALTOR® | D&J Realty Group | Keller Williams McKinney. Updated October 14, 2026.
The Short Answer
Trying to time rates or prices matters less than three things you control: how long you'll stay, whether the payment fits comfortably, and what you pay to get in. At today's rates, renting a comparable house usually costs less month to month, and on pure math renting can come out ahead for years. Buying builds equity that renting doesn't, and buyers in Collin County have more room to lower their cost right now than they've had in years.
Where the Collin County Market Is Right Now
- Median sale price: $440,995 in September 2026, down 2.0% from a year earlier.
- Months of supply: 4.9, up from 4.2 a year earlier. That's technically a balanced market, but it's leaning toward buyers.
- Seller concessions: 60.4% of sellers paid concessions, with a median of $10,000.
- Mortgage rates: the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% on October 8, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier (Freddie Mac). That is an average interest rate, not an APR. See the APR examples below.
Home figures are for detached single-family homes from NTREIS via ChartMaster Services. For the latest numbers each month, see our Collin County market update.
What Waiting Actually Changes
Most buyers who wait are hoping for one of two things.
Lower rates. Rates may come down, but nobody can promise when. They rose about a full point over the past year. If rates fall after you buy, you may be able to refinance, but refinancing has its own closing costs and depends on your credit and home value at the time.
Lower prices. The county median fell 2.0% over the past year. Nobody can promise what the next year brings, in either direction.
Here is what the rate alone does to the monthly principal and interest on the same home:
- 7.40% interest rate (7.55% APR): $2,443 a month
- 6.90% interest rate (7.04% APR): $2,324 a month
- 6.40% interest rate (6.54% APR): $2,207 a month
Examples only, not a loan offer. Based on a $440,995 price, 20% down ($88,199), and a $352,796 30-year fixed loan with 360 monthly payments. APR assumes $5,000 in prepaid finance charges (lender fees and points). Payments are principal and interest only; taxes and insurance make the actual payment higher. Your rate and APR depend on your credit, loan type, and lender.
A full point lower saves about $236 a month on this example. That's real money, but it's smaller than most people expect, and seller concessions can help pay for a rate buydown today without waiting.
The Real Monthly Cost of Owning
Same $440,995 home, 20% down, 7.40% interest rate (7.55% APR):
- Principal and interest: $2,443
- Property taxes (1.71% before exemptions, City of McKinney and McKinney ISD example): $628
- Homeowners insurance (estimate, 0.52% of value per year): $191
- Maintenance reserve (1% of value per year): $367
- Total before HOA: about $3,630 a month
A homestead exemption lowers the tax bill once you live in the home, and rates differ by address. Compare that with renting a house: the median asking rent in Collin County is $2,400 a month for 3 bedrooms and $2,800 for 4 or more bedrooms (Rentometer, data as of January 9, 2026). Month to month, renting a comparable house costs less right now.
The Equity Story: What You're Building
Every mortgage payment pays down your loan, and if values rise, that gain is yours too. Renters don't build that. Here is the equity (home value minus loan balance) on the same home with $88,199 down at a 7.40% interest rate, before selling costs:
- After 5 years: $19,323 of loan paid down. Equity of $107,522 if values stay flat, $153,421 at 2% a year, or $177,761 at 3% a year.
- After 10 years: $47,265 of loan paid down. Equity of $135,464 if values stay flat, $232,039 at 2% a year, or $287,129 at 3% a year.
- After 15 years: $87,672 of loan paid down. Equity of $175,871 if values stay flat, $328,397 at 2% a year, or $421,932 at 3% a year.
To keep the comparison fair, that equity includes your own $88,199 down payment. If a renter invested the same money at 4% instead, it would grow to about $107,000 in 5 years, $131,000 in 10, and $159,000 in 15. Selling costs of about 6% come out when you sell.
Rent vs. Buy: What the Math Says Today
We ran a full comparison on this home: 3% buyer closing costs, 6% selling costs, rent rising 3% a year, an estimated homestead exemption, and a renter who invests the down payment, the closing costs, and every dollar saved each month at 4%. With rent of $2,400 to $2,800 a month:
- If home values rise 4% a year, buying pulls ahead after about 5 to 9 years.
- If values rise 3% a year, it takes about 8 to 17 years.
- If values stay flat, it can take 19 years or longer.
That model assumes the renter invests every dollar saved, every month, for years. Many people don't, and that's where owning has a real edge: part of every payment builds equity whether you're disciplined about saving or not. A lower price, seller concessions, a rate buydown, or a later refinance all shorten the timeline. That's why the numbers on a specific home matter more than any average.
Ways Buyers Are Lowering Their Cost Right Now
- Seller concessions. 60.4% of sellers paid them in September, with a median of $10,000. Buyers can put concessions toward closing costs or a rate buydown.
- Rate buydowns. Ask whether a buydown is permanent (lower rate for the life of the loan) or temporary (the rate steps back up after one to three years). Make sure the payment works at the full rate.
- New construction incentives. Builders often offer closing-cost help or rate buydowns. Terms vary by builder and community, so compare the total cost, not just the advertised rate.
- Price. With 4.9 months of supply, buyers have more room to negotiate than they did a year ago.
- Lender quotes. Comparing quotes from more than one lender can lower both your rate and your fees.
A Simple Decision Checklist
- How long will you likely stay in the home?
- Does the full payment, including taxes, insurance, and HOA, fit comfortably?
- Will you still have cash reserves after closing?
- How stable is your income?
- Is there a comparable rental where you want to live, and what does it really cost?
Want the Real Numbers for Your Situation?
We'll run this comparison for a specific home or neighborhood using real comps, current rents, and actual lender quotes. Contact us to get started, or call or text Jessica at (972) 965-9882.
Sources: NTREIS via ChartMaster Services, LLC, September 2026 (detached single-family homes; figures are medians); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026; Collin County Tax Assessor-Collector, 2026 tax rates; Rentometer, Average Rent in Collin County, TX, data as of January 9, 2026. Payment, equity, and rent-vs-buy figures are D&J Realty Group calculations using the assumptions stated above. This article is general information, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Information is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.
